Not a head fake
June 15th, 2006
Jason Fried at the Signal vs. Noise Blog had an interesting post last week, speculating on the real motivations behind Google’s recent encroachments on Microsoft’s traditional territories:
What if Google was so brilliantly twisted that they’re using Writely and Spreadsheet and Calendar and massive numbers of new hires as flares to distract Microsoft (and others)? Shoot up a flare (Spreadsheet) and scare Microsoft into paying even more attention to new attacks from new directions. The flares serve one purpose: to redirect competitors’ energy away from focusing on search/ads, which are Google’s core competency (and primary revenue source). Hey look over here!!! Is Google the best slight of hand magician around? Is the “Google Office” just a head fake?
I admit that it is an elegant, intriguing and not altogether implausible theory, but I’m not buying it. Everything I’ve seen suggests to me that a suite of “Google Office” applications is under active development and may well be available as a bundle by the end of this year, even before Microsoft delivers its delayed Vista OS to consumers in January 2007 or later. After all, consumer users will be the initial focus of GOOG-O (my new shorthand for Google Office) anyway, and Google’s recent partnership with Dell creates an opening for GOOG-O to be pre-loaded on Dell machines so it can go head-to-head with Vista. Google will continue to focus most of its organizational time, financial resources and talent on refining and strengthening its competency in search, but GOOG-O creates the irresistible opportunity for a new and critical revenue stream that might reduce the company’s almost total reliance on advertising.
Personally, I cannot wait to use a complete GOOG-O. I’m using bits and pieces of it already (Gmail, Calendar, Notebook etc.), and I love the way they work separately. Once it is an integrated product that includes all of the very best tools Google’s engineers have created, however, watch out. I suspect many very Web-savvy people will jump immediately to embrace the superior quality of Google’s user interfaces and search capabilities, not to mention their desire to tweak Microsoft. It should be quite a battle. I’m wondering if the absolute certainty that Microsoft will be “going to the mattresses” with the exciting, unpredictable and “brilliantly twisted” Google factored into Bill Gates’s decision to step back from day-to-day involvement in the company? You never know, but then again, it could be just another head fake as well!
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